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Caledonian-Record issue ad, Oct. 30 & Nov. 2

O Democracy!

Comedian Lily Tomlin famously remarked that "reality is a collective hunch."

Whether or not that is very profound philosophically, it does shine a light on our current struggle with political polarization. The hunch is collective when it is based on a set of facts we all can see, regardless of the conclusions we draw from them. That shared set of facts seems to be getting smaller and smaller.

Worse, some political leaders have decided to intentionally undermine facts. The former President's spokesperson Kellyanne Conway referred to "alternative facts."

What's dangerous about this is that the strategy of subverting observable facts tears at the fabric of self-government.

Any form of government relies on public acceptance for its legitimacy. Monarchs rely on rigid social order; dictators rely on force; tyrants rely on fear.

Democracy relies on an idea: that however much we disagree, we have in common ideals of fairness and the rule of law. These ideals in turn rest on trust that facts are not just a matter of opinion, but actually matter.

Whoever wins the election on Nov. 5, half the voting public will feel the government does not represent them. The assault on facts has weakened the legitimacy of our democratic republic.

Vermont's small size insulates us somewhat. But the assault on facts infects even Vermont's political discourse. Negative ads and personal attacks ratchet up each election cycle.

This year the relationship between the Governor and the Legislature has grown far more partisan. The Governor has been campaigning vigorously to defeat Democratic Senate and House candidates, raising money and giving personal endorsements.

Beyond healthy vigor, we have seen relentless finger-pointing about the "super-majority," as though voters didn't intend to elect these legislators; unfounded claims about the Affordable Heat Act; and most jarring, exploiting—actually stoking—anger about education property taxes.

National politics come to Vermont.

I dearly hope we can pull back from the abyss of negativity, and debate issues on their merits and the actual—not "alternative"— facts. Our democracy depends on it.

Caledonian-Record issue ad, Oct. 16 & 19

Climate Deception

Have you noticed relentless attacks on the Affordable Heat Act and "clean heat"? The prophets (profits?) of doom would have us believe nothing is more UN-affordable than ditching fossil fuels. Huh?

The AHA program is still in design at the Public Utility Commission (more below), so projecting costs has no reliable basis. But the Administration and vested interests are making up scary numbers and crying "Carbon Tax!" Such fear tactics are a disservice to the dire challenges and serious policy questions at hand. 

Yes, we are all concerned about costs. Will reducing reliance on fossils be cost-free? Of course not. But we have no choice. Carbon pollution has destabilized the climate. The global economy is changing. What choice we have is between planned, predictable, incremental costs, and crisis-driven, emergency costs—such as the seven Vermont disaster declarations in 14 months.

We can't stop disasters, nor  price spikes due to inevitable regulation and supply/demand imbalances. But we can prepare by adapting  infrastructure and by helping households and businesses reduce vulnerability to the oil market rollercoaster.

The upfront costs of weatherization and non-fossil heating equipment are indeed hard to manage, despite long-term cost,  comfort and health benefits.

The AHA sets up subsidies to help households and businesses get over that cost barrier when they are ready to make the investment. That's the whole purpose of the program.

 Funding would come from requiring fossil-fuel importers to fund subsidies for efficiency and non-fossil equipment, or to buy clean-heat credits in a market. Fossil importers may well raise prices. How much is where the scare tactics come in. But the AHA directs the PUC to design for minimal impact.

The PUC's draft rule report on Oct. 1 recognized the need to raise money for subsidies but suggested a "thermal energy benefit charge" would be simpler and less expensive. The Legislature will consider all options in the next session.

It is obvious that climate disruption is underway, as was predicted decades ago. Had we acted then the costs of adaptation and fuel transition would be far more manageable. 

But we didn't act. Some would have us delay yet further.  That would risk far higher costs to consumers and threats to Vermont's economy. 

To be sure, we must balance long-term preparation and short-term costs. Significant investment is required to make our homes, businesses, roads, communities, and grid more robust and resilient—especially significant for a small rural State. We must get started.

Caledonian-Record issue ad, Oct. 2 & 5

Responsibility and Integrity

Campaign distortion time.

I'm proud to serve in our part-time, nearly volunteer citizen Legislature. I am pleased to engage in serious debate about which policies and priorities best serve Vermonters today and into the future.

I am not excited about attacking those with different views.

Yet not responding to attacks from opponents could leave the impression that their "facts" are the whole truth. The intentional undermining of reality is in fact the core strategy of Trump's fire hose of preposterous lies. Unfortunately that strategy is beginning to infect Vermont too.

The Governor just issued a press release slamming the Legislature for funding school budgets passed by local districts. Unfortunately this statement — directly from the Governor's office, using state-paid staff — amounts to a Trump-style campaign attack. I've written extensively about factors leading to Education Fund increases. I'm not going to debate the Governor. I'm just disappointed that he has stooped this low.

My opponent in the St. Johnsbury-Concord-Kirby state representative district has chosen to introduce herself to voters with similar half-truths and innuendos.

After three terms, I stand by my record. It will not, and cannot, please everyone. In my view, State Reps must represent the interests of their district, both short term and long term, in the context of neighbors as well as future generations. Like all citizen-legislators, I do my best to research and understand complex issues, many of which are outside my expertise. I make judgments based on that understanding, and try to communicate my reasoning to constituents. See recent posts and archives at my website, CampbellForVermont.com. (Sorry, I'm not on social media!)

Let me here apologize to anyone who has emailed or called this year and not received a response. The year has been particularly busy — not least with helping to start the Caledonia Food Co-op — and I got way behind. Please forgive the lack of response. Try again and I will get back this time!

Front Porch Forum, August 27, 2024

Education Property Taxes (Again)

Property taxpayers in St. Johnsbury are seeing an Education tax increase of 25% for the coming year. It's shocking for all of us, devastating for many, and simply not possible for some. More than two-thirds of residential property owners here pay based on income, thanks to the homestead tax credit. Still, personally, and as a State Rep., I'm sick about it.

I have posted many times this year about how this came about.

To recap briefly, many factors combined to drive costs higher this year. Health insurance went up 16%. Teacher salaries increased to stay competitive and retain teachers. Schools still must cope with pandemic mental health needs, while federal funding has expired. A $100 million Ed Fund surplus last year reduced last year's taxes — but just delayed the increase to this year.

Most of these were outside the Legislature's — or anyone's — control. Two factors that can be laid to recent legislative action: universal school meals, paid with the surplus last year and now in the regular budget; and long-overdue changes to "pupil weighting," Act 127 of 2022, which adjusts for the different costs of different students (high school vs. kindergarten, high-poverty population vs. low, etc.). Rolling back those initiatives was considered, but there was little support for it.

The Legislature obsessed about this all session. There were, and are, no good options. The Governor's last-minute proposal to spread this year's higher costs over several years was panned as not feasible or responsible by the Treasurer, fiscal experts, and our own Senator Kitchel, chair of Senate Appropriations.

Basically we are paying for a system with two opposing goals: improving efficiency on the one hand, and maintaining local control on the other. Vermont has fewer than 650,000 people, and we have 128 school districts in 52 supervisory unions. We have high administrative costs, aging facilities with a 17-year-and-counting moratorium on state construction aid, growing need for special ed and mental health services, 20% fewer students compared to 25 years ago, and a shrinking tax base of aging taxpayers.

The Yield Bill, which sets the final piece in the calculation of property tax rates, created a Commission on the Future of Public Education to seriously confront these fundamental issues. The Bill was vetoed by the Governor and opposed by many of my colleagues.

But I voted to support it and to override the Governor's veto. I cannot support drastic cuts that shortchange our kids and burden our community with future social and financial costs of poorly prepared citizens. Nor can I support ill-advised punting of today's costs to tomorrow. Borrowing to make long-term investments is one thing; borrowing to pay for day-to-day expenses is entirely another.

There are no easy answers. In the end, I believe educating the next generation is the community's responsibility and is a worthy investment. I greatly regret the pain it's causing, but there is no viable alternative at this time. I hope the Commission will truly tackle the hard issues and the next Legislature — and the public — will support a more sustainable system.

See also: Why We Must Pass the School Budget, 4/24/2024

Home page post, August 3, 2024

Whacked

How are we going to cope with this? These storms are not going to stop. The planet is heating faster than climate scientists predicted — which makes some sense, since most are more likely to be conservative than alarmist.

I'm grimly fond of saying, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, and most of us have our own facts; but we are not allowed to have our own physics.

The physics are: the global temperature is rising; a warmer atmosphere holds more rain; warmer oceans put more water into the atmosphere; warmer air temperatures also suck more water from the ground surface and spawn more extreme fires; and industrial-scale burning of fossil fuels has led to concentrations of greenhouse gases leading to temperatures the planet has not seen in at least 2 million years.

Climate action skeptics harp accusingly on the costs of various efforts by me and the Legislature to confront the impacts of the climate crisis — of physics — on Vermont.

Yes, there are unavoidable costs. There are costs of preparation, and there are costs of recovery. The costs of preparation — adaptation, mitigation — can be planned, budgeted for, and reduced for the most economically vulnerable. The costs of recovery are driven by crisis, and are obviously unpredictable, budget-busting, and more ruinous for folks close to the edge.

I continue to advocate for the planned costs of preparation.

Caledonia-Record, Letter to Editor August 3, 2024 (written July 31)

The Challenges Ahead

There are many issues in front of us, but let's start with education property taxes. Like every property owner, I am bracing for an increase. Most will be unpleasantly surprised. Many will be angry. Some will be desperate.

Some political leaders have sought to capitalize on that anger and desperation by declining to support the "yield bill" that pays for the Education Fund. The Ed Fund is the total of all school budgets statewide, as determined by local school districts and approved by town voters.

There were big cost pressures this year. Health insurance went up 16%. Teacher salaries increased to stay competitive and retain teachers. Schools continue to cope with pandemic mental health needs, while federal funding has expired. A $100 million surplus last year reduced last year's taxes — but just delayed that increase to this year.

Most of these were outside the Legislature's — or anyone's — control. Two factors that can be laid to recent legislative action: universal school meals, paid with the surplus last year and now in the regular budget; and long-overdue changes to "pupil weighting," which adjusts for the different costs of different students (high school vs. kindergarten, high-poverty population vs. low, etc.).

The Legislature was obsessed with the problem all this last session. We could have backtracked on those last two initiatives, but there was little support for that. We could have tapped reserves or other one-time money, but any significant impact would have merely delayed the pain for another year.

We must face higher costs to educate our kids. Yet anger and desperation are real and valid. For those on fixed incomes or living paycheck-to-paycheck, paying an annual property tax bill in two bites every year is already a source of great anxiety. Having that bill increase by 10-15% or more is impossible.

Basically we have an expensive system for too few students supported by too few taxpayers. We have high fixed costs (128 school districts in 52 supervisory unions; aging facilities and a moratorium on state construction aid since 2007; growing need for special ed and mental health services); and 20% fewer students compared to 25 years ago.

The 2024 Yield Bill (H.887/Act 183) created a Commission on the Future of Public Education to seriously confront this fundamental issue. It modestly raised taxes on short-term rentals and removed a tax exemption on online "cloud-based" software and used some General Fund money to reduce average property tax increases from 18% to 13%. Importantly it added funding to support income-based property tax credits for the two-thirds of Vermonters who qualify.

The Legislature also passed other bills to address school construction (H.871/Act 149); enhance income sensitivity (H.546/Act 144); and streamlining school support services (H.630/Act 168).

I supported the Yield Bill, as did a spectrum of teacher, school board and administrative organizations that rarely agree. It's worth asking other candidates (and the Governor) why they didn't. The answer, "because it raised taxes too high," is no answer. What would they have done differently? Costs went up because of identifiable reasons; how would they have paid for them?

Here are some other critical issues facing Vermont and our communities to ask about.

Housing

Housing continues to strangle our economy. Employers can't attract people if there's no place to live. Empty-nesters can't downsize if they can't find an apartment, freezing out and driving up prices for young families. A tight housing market pushes more vulnerable households into homelessness.

The Legislature has been working to address housing for years, devoting over $1 billion, mostly federal money, in incentives and subsidies, and streamlining regulation to make permitting easier. This year H.687/Act 181 balanced long-overdue Act 250 reform with additional funding. The Governor vetoed the bill, but the Legislature (and I) voted to override 107-38.

Public Safety

Public safety has become an urgent issue for residents and business owners, as the large turnout at the July 29 St. Johnsbury public meeting made clear. I think all appreciated Police Chief Joel Pierce's efforts and understood how difficult it is to recruit officers. Many felt the Legislature needs to pass stronger laws on drug distribution, homelessness and mental health supports.

Vermont Health Commissioner Mark Levine's comments at the end neatly summarized the complexities and interconnectedness of these issues. In fact the Legislature grapples with them every year. This year, among other actions, the Legislature added resources to the Governor's requested budget to reduce the court backlog with more prosecutors and court staff. The years-long delay between arrest and trial — between offense and consequence — greatly blunts the deterrent effect of laws, more so than the severity of the laws according to experts.

Climate Disruption

The July 10 Athenaeum presentation by Sen. Becca White on legislative actions to prepare Vermont for the impacts of a destabilized climate was sparsely attended, probably because the rain that would flood many homes and businesses had already started. Of the few attendees, several questioned whether burning fossil fuels has really changed the climate.

As I surveyed wrecked roads Tuesday and looked in the faces of anguished neighbors, I felt both the enormity of the task ahead and frustration with those who still stand in the way. I know some folks earnestly worry about fuel costs, or even believe various conspiracy theories, and I try to be patient and hear them out. But my patience is wearing thin.

Yes, building resilient infrastructure costs something. Yes, transitioning away from dependence on fossil fuels costs something. But we must reckon with both responsibility for our own pollution and the financial and psychic costs to Vermonters of five floods in one year, and more to come.

Demographics

Ultimately, education, public safety, infrastructure, health care, and in fact Vermont's fiscal viability, come down to the demographic challenge. We must attract and retain the next generation, or Vermont will become even more expensive and less appealing.

Some see affordability through an austerity lens: cutting taxes and services. Efficient government requires constant vigilance, without doubt. But I see affordability through a prosperity lens: strategic investments that build community and opportunity, and support families and businesses.

See Archive for more articles.